Dumping, Disaffection, and the Reform Surge

The UK stands at a geopolitical and economic crossroads. As China faces increasing trade barriers from the United States, particularly in high-tech and green manufacturing sectors, it has begun redirecting its vast surplus capacity toward other global markets. Economists warn this could result in a surge of "dumped" goods — products exported at artificially low prices, undercutting domestic producers — landing in Europe, including the UK. This dynamic brings Britain’s trade posture sharply into focus. Post-Brexit, the UK lacks the protective infrastructure of the EU’s common trade policy, including robust anti-dumping mechanisms. Simultaneously, rising domestic discontent — visible in Reform UK’s polling growth — reveals how the economic squeeze is reshaping the electorate’s orientation.

China’s overproduction, especially in sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), steel, and solar panels, is no longer sustainable within its domestic market. With the U.S. imposing significant tariffs — most notably under both Trump and Biden administrations — China may increasingly turn to Europe and peripheral economies like Britain to absorb this excess.

In the EU, anti-dumping measures are routinely deployed. As of 2023, the EU had over 100 active anti-dumping duties, many targeting Chinese goods. These tariffs are backed by bloc-wide investigations and retaliation procedures, giving the EU significant leverage. In contrast, post-Brexit UK trade policy has been hesitant to mirror EU protections, partly out of fear of undermining sovereignty, and partly due to a desire not to alienate potential trade allies.

But this reluctance could come at a cost. Britain’s manufacturing sector, already weakened by deindustrialization and rising input costs, could face ruin if Chinese goods flood the market. Sectors like automotive, steel, and solar panel manufacturing are especially vulnerable.

Economic vulnerabilities have a clear political consequence. Disillusionment with Conservative mismanagement, combined with Labour’s centrist triangulation under Keir Starmer, has created fertile ground for Reform UK. The party's populist-nationalist rhetoric resonates with voters who feel abandoned by both major parties.

According to YouGov and Redfield & Wilton polling from early 2025:

Reform UK has surged to 13%–16% nationally, even outperforming the Conservatives among working-class voters.

In key regions like the East Midlands and North East, Reform polls in the high teens, occasionally outpacing the Tories.

This reflects not just cultural grievances, but economic anxiety. A large segment of Reform’s support comes from those facing stagnant wages, job insecurity, and the hollowing out of industrial capacity — precisely the areas that would be hardest hit by a new wave of cheap imports.

Faced with this dual crisis — external economic pressure and internal political fragmentation — the government is trapped in contradiction. On one hand, aligning with the EU on trade defenses (like anti-dumping tariffs) offers material protection. On the other hand, it risks validating the perception — stoked by Reform UK — that Brexit is being reversed or "betrayed".

Downing Street’s reluctance to be seen as “drifting toward Brussels” is therefore ideological, not rational. Economically, alignment with EU standards on dumping would shield British producers and rebalance trade. Politically, it could also neutralize a core claim of Reform: that the UK is defenceless and adrift in a globalised economy.

If the UK refuses to coordinate with the EU on anti-dumping policy, it risks becoming a dumping ground for Chinese overproduction. The economic damage would not only harm businesses, but further embolden the populist right. Reform UK's growth is a symptom of this broader crisis — a warning that disaffection breeds radicalisation when institutional responses fail.

The UK must choose between ideological purity and economic pragmatism. Closer alignment with the EU may not be politically comfortable, but it is materially necessary. If the government fails to act, the cost will not just be borne in trade deficits — it will be paid in lost jobs, deepened inequality, and the further erosion of democratic stability.