Runcorn and Helsby By-election: A Reference

Despite Labour winning Runcorn and Helsby with 52.9% of the vote in the 2024 general election, polls for the upcoming by-election show Reform UK now leading, with some surveys putting them as high as 40%. Given that Reform only secured 18.1% in the constituency last year, this would represent a major swing of over 20 percentage points — a dramatic shift in voter sentiment in less than a year.